Allen explained to the panel and to the Lunnys how she arrived at the 80 percent decline in harbor seal populations when she presented her claim in front of the Board of Supervisors in 2007. “I came with the data I had,” said Allen who explained she used data available up to May 3, 2007. “Then I added more as it came in.” In the end, there was not an 80 percent decline in the harbor seal population, but the error was enough to set the story in motion.

Watershed at the estero

The watershed moment of understanding between the park’s chief scientist and the DBOC arrived.

“We accept that as an honest explanation as an error that happened in haste,” said Lunny to Allen to a clapping crowd. “You don’t have to be a federal employee to make those kinds of mistakes.” A handshake ensued.

The decline, at the time, was considered an issue of “national importance” and marked the moment that ignited the fuse of the now explosive oyster company-park service dispute.

Marine Mammal Commission Executive Director Tim Ragen, who led the meeting, put everything into perspective after an hour of discussion summarizing the data issue.

“There are two major points here,” said Ragen of the of the 80 percent decline figure used against the oyster farm. “We need to get past this and we need to clear up that 80 percent issue from this point on. That means websites, papers etcetera needs to be corrected,” he said referring to the Save Drakes Bay Coalition website.

Ragen also instructed the panel to review other disputed data points highlighted by Dr. Corey Goodman and supported by Lunny. The board agreed to review four disputed points and could eliminate them from the database. “Think about what will help us move forward,” Ragen said. “Can we resolve the issues or just feel catharsis by expressing our opinions?”

The meetings, at the Red Barn in the Point Reyes National Seashore and at the estero itself, were almost entirely science-based discussions including disputed data points with a few digressions into management clarifications presented by Michael Gosliner, General Counsel for the Marine Mammal Commission.

The committee discussed other human and natural disturbances like clamming, kayaking and hiking, but Drakes Bay Oyster Company remained at the center of the conversation and the key reason for the review by the Commission. The MMC decided to take on the project after repeated requests from the National Park Service and a petition from Gordon Bennett of the Sierra Club and Neal Desai of the National Parks Conservation Association. The review from the MMC comes after a National Academy of Science review and an inquest by the Department of Interior’s Inspector General on alleged misconduct by Park officials.

Clarity

The MMC will not be the last chapter in the saga at Drakes Estero nor will it answer all the questions raised especially those involving management and wilderness policy, but it will strive to clarify and to bring together the different parties, agencies and stakeholders in the debate of how best to manage an oyster farm in an area that is home to one of the largest seal populations in the state in an area regulated by a variety of state and federal agencies. The result of the review will be a model for other areas around the county that are facing similar issues, Ragen said.

Some key points raised included the overlapping regulations that DBOC faces when trying to comply with authorities. A solution to set up a working group encouraging open communication between all the agencies was supported by the commission and Lunny.

“You are not a predator,” Dr. Allen said in a conciliatory tone. “I look forward to working collaboratively.” One idea tossed around was to invite Allen onto the estero with the oyster crews or train the oyster workers in monitoring.

Another observation in question was the indication that higher mariculture disturbances were based on higher production numbers as measured by the number of pounds of shucked oysters. The metric was recently used in, “Spatial use of Drakes Estero, California, by harbor seals correlated to anthropogenic disturbance and natural variation during 1982-2009” the latest study by Ben Becker, Director and Marine Ecologist, Pacific Coast Science and Learning Center.

“Is that a reasonable proxy for the amount of disturbances?’ Ragen asked the panel. “Does this make statistical sense? Does it make biological sense?”

The issue brought up other questions of defining and measuring disturbances. “Do accumulated disturbances have long term effects?” Ragen asked

Steven Jeffries, a marine mammal scientist from the Washington Department of Fish and Game said, “Oyster farming operations in Washington coexist with seals. I think there is some way to come to a common ground.”

That common ground was reached, it seemed, at the end of four days.

“We are trying to find ways to promote conservation,” in a time when human populations are putting immense pressure on ecosystems, Ragen said. “Many decisions are needed at the local level not just from the top down. We need a model that works and this is an opportunity to do just that.”